This calculator answers the most important question in the fixed vs. variable debate: exactly how many rate hikes does it take for fixed to win? Enter your balance, both rates, and term length to see a full scenario table showing which option is cheaper at every possible rate outcome.
Find exactly how much rates need to move for fixed to beat variable — based on your actual numbers.
| Rate Scenario | Variable Interest | Fixed Interest | Result |
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Enter your mortgage balance, your variable rate (typically prime minus a discount), your fixed rate, your term length (3 or 5 years), and your amortization. The table populates immediately with total interest paid for fixed vs variable under every rate scenario from 4 cuts to 4 hikes.
The scenario table shows what happens to total interest under each Bank of Canada rate path. Each row represents a different number of 0.25% rate moves over your term. The highlighted row shows the break-even scenario — where fixed and variable cost the same total interest. If you expect fewer rate hikes than the break-even row, variable wins. More hikes, fixed wins.
The summary card shows the current rate advantage — the interest saving from choosing the cheaper option at today's rates assuming no rate changes. This is your starting position before any BoC moves are factored in.
One subtlety: this calculator models all rate changes as happening immediately. In reality, BoC rate changes are spread throughout the term. This slightly overstates the variable advantage in a rising scenario and understates it in a falling scenario. For a more precise analysis, use the Fixed vs Variable Scenario Modeller, which lets you set the timing of rate changes. Use this break-even table for the strategic framing, and the scenario modeller for the exact numbers.
The break-even is the average variable rate over your term that makes total interest paid equal between fixed and variable. If the variable rate stays below the break-even average, variable wins. If it rises above it, fixed wins.
Research by Dr. Moshe Milevsky (York University) found that over 50+ years, variable-rate borrowers paid less interest about 90% of the time in Canada. However, past performance doesn't guarantee future results.
Risk tolerance matters as much as math. If the uncertainty of a variable rate causes financial anxiety, the peace of mind from a fixed rate has real value. Choose the option that lets you focus on other things.
Consider fixed if: you're at your maximum qualifying amount (a rate hike could strain you), you have a short runway (near retirement, expecting income changes), or you have strong evidence rates will rise significantly over your term.
Explore current rates from 16+ Canadian lenders, or read our guides to understand your options.